2017 Hurricane Season Update #13
With Emphasis on Tropical Weather Affecting Northern Belize
Posted July 17, 2017
Invest 95L Becomes Tropical Storm Don
NHC Expects Don to Dissipate in 72hr. Some Models Aren't So Sure
The USA's National Hurricane Center in Miami has begun issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Don. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Invest 95L this afternoon, found a small, but well-defined surface circulation and a small area of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of that circulation.
Don is not currently well organized, but is expected to strengthen a bit before reaching the Caribbean Island. Once Don enters the Caribbean Sea, the thermodynamic conditions needed for maintaining a tropical cyclone will begin to deteriorate. If it reaches 70°sW still intact, Don will likely slam into a wall of strong upper-level westerly winds and strong low-level easterly trade winds which should cause the storm to open up into a trough. As a result, the NHC is forecasting dissipation within 72 hours.
The Atlantic Ridge will dominate steering of Tropical Storm Don. The models continue to track Don due West toward Nicaragua and Honduras. Remember, two days ago Tropical Storm Formation was not expect for the next 5 days. Now, just two days latter we have a Tropical Storm heading into the Caribbean. Before the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found a closed circulation and Storm Force winds, most of the models did not develop 95L. Now NHC says Don will dissipate in 72 hours. Most models are showing a Tropical Storm in the Caribbean up to 132 hours and beyond. Given the models poor preference with this system to date, I suspect the NHC probably has it right.
Tomorrow, after a couple more Hurricane Hunter trips through Don and some synaptic investigations of the atmosphere in front of the storm, we should have a better idea of what to expect from Tropical Storm Don. We will be into the weekend before Don comes our way, if it does.
Tropical Storm Don
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin:
Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Over The Next 5 Days
National Hurricane Center RSS Feeds
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