2017 Hurricane Season Update

With Emphasis on Tropical Weather Affecting Northern Belize

Posted April 21, 2017

Rare April Tropical Storm Forms In The North Atlantic

2017 Season Doen't Officially Start Until June 1st

Tropical Storm Arline

Only four April tropical or subtropical depressions are known to have formed in in the Atlantic prior to Arlene, although many such systems would have gone undetected prior to the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1970s. Only two of the four April systems on record became named tropical storms: our current TS Arlene and Tropical Storm Ana in 2003.

Since Arlene is not a threat to Belize, I won't go into a lot of detail about the storm. It is expected to be absorbed into a large non-tropical barocolic low within the next 24 hours. See the National Hurricane Center's discussion below for more details.

Tropical Weather Abbreviations

The Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlook

					NHC Atlantic
Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast Discussion Number 8
April 21, 2017, 2:36 AM
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017

Arlene has maintained a small area of deep convection surrounding
the center of the cyclone, with some of the cloud tops as cold as
-50 deg C. However, satellite trends over the past couple of hours
indicate that the areal coverage of the convection has decreased
significantly since the 0600 UTC satellite intensity estimates, an
indication that Arlene is beginning to lose its tropical
characteristics as the cyclone interacts with a frontal zone and
also moves over cooler water. Dvorak current intensity estimates
remain at 45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is now 270/27 kt.  Arlene has
accelerated westward during the past 6 hours as the cyclone moves
around the northern periphery of a larger deep-layer extratropical
low that has remained nearly stationary near 36N 48W. The small
cyclone or its remnants are expected to move in a cyclonic loop
around this low for the next couple of days.

Arlene is gradually running out of space within the narrow warm
sector of the aforementioned occluded low pressure system, and
merger with one or more frontal zones is likely during the next 12
hours. The new official intensity forecast continues the trend of
the previous advisory, which shows Arlene degenerating to a
post-tropical cyclone by 12 hours, and dissipating by 24 hours when
the system is expected to be absorbed into the larger baroclinic

Tropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second
one observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be
noted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible
to detect prior to the weather satellite era.


INIT  21/0900Z 40.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 39.5N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Stewart


The above information is a compilation of data from several official and unofficial sources and is provided with the understanding that neither Consejo.Bz nor the Author make any warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this information. Always rely on official statements and releases in potentially life threatening situations. The Author does not claim any of the above commentary or images are original content.